“`html
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
- iPhone 16 shows a faster early drop—about ~35.4% by month five, compared to ~24.7% for iPhone 13.
- Galaxy S25 is narrowing the resale gap with AI features and 7-year software support.
- Pixel is promo-sensitive but rising in premium tiers—Pixel 10 launched at $799, matching iPhone’s price anchor.
- December–February is the golden window for used phone sales across all three brands.
- The $200–$500 band dominates U.S. resale and offers fast turnover when condition is clean.
The Real-Time Snapshot: Model-by-Model Price Curves (Dec 2025)
Here’s what the U.S. market is doing today. Each family tells its own story. These are not one-size-fits-all drops—they’re model-by-model price trends with different slopes.
iPhone: Still the Resale King, but Early Dips Are Sharper
The iPhone line still holds the strongest resale value in 2025 among iPhone, Galaxy, and Pixel. But the early 5-month drop has sped up over the last few cycles. The iPhone 16 shows an estimated ~35.4% value loss by month five, versus ~24.7% for the iPhone 13 over the same window.
Why the steeper slide? Smaller year-over-year upgrades, promo-heavy launches, and strong demand for certified refurbs pull buyers away from brand-new list prices. Meanwhile, the $200–$500 band—think iPhone 13/14 in solid condition—dominates U.S. sales today and tends to drift slower after the first year.
Looking ahead, the 5-month drop could reach about ~46% by 2027 if the trend lines keep moving this way.
Galaxy (Samsung): Narrowing the Gap with AI and Long Support
Samsung has tightened the resale gap. Modeled 5-month depreciation is improving: the Galaxy S25 shows about ~46.6% versus ~51.9% for the S22.
What’s helping? AI features and a 7-year software support promise are raising the floor for buyers who plan to hold their phone longer. Premium segments over $500 are growing the fastest. But keep an eye on promos—heavy carrier deals can spike early-cycle drops, then stabilize later.
Pixel (Google): Promo-Sensitive, but Cameras and Clean Software Keep Fans Loyal
Pixels tend to dip faster, mostly because Google Store and carrier promos show up often and loud. But the camera, stock Android, and the rise of premium Pixels keep good refurbs attractive.
Real-world price check: Older Pixels show how promo waves shape used floors. As of Dec 2025, the original Pixel averages an $86 sale price, with the best deals around $76, and the 128 GB variant trending near $99.
The Pixel 10 launched at $799, matching iPhone 17 positioning. That premium move is on purpose—it boosts perceived value and helps set firmer resale floors as buyers price-compare across brands.
Refurb Market Tailwinds: Floors Are Firmer in Key Condition Bands
The refurbished boom is here. Average selling prices for refurbished phones ticked up in H1 2025 (about ~3% YoY), and “as‑is” units saw about a ~10% YoY ASP lift. That’s great news for good-condition devices and the $200–$500 sweet spot where most buyers shop.
“The bottom line: iPhones still wear the resale crown, Samsung is catching up fast, and Pixels are promo-driven but getting pricier at the top end. If you pick the right window, all three can hit strong prices.”
Model-by-Model Sell Windows to Maximize Cash
Timing matters. Think of prices like a tide. The water rises around holidays and early tax prep. It drops after big promos and product launches. Here’s how to ride it by family.
iPhone: List Earlier in the Winter Window
Best window: December to February. Aim to capture holiday shoppers and early tax refunds before the mid-season listing surge.
The iPhone 16 has a faster early drop than past cycles. That shortens the “peak” week. If you’re debating a January list vs. waiting till March, list sooner. You’ll catch buyers before supply explodes. iPhone 13/14 in the $200–$500 band are steady earners—they sit where most buyers are shopping and move fast when condition is clean.
Galaxy: Play the S Cycle and Watch Unpacked
Best window: December to January for last-gen S series. These units turn quickly before Samsung’s new cycle and BOGO ads flood the market, which can press used prices.
Foldables and Flips? Sell pre-cycle. They’re very promo-sensitive. Skip the headwind of “buy one, get one” seasons. The $200–$500 sweet spot includes S22 and S23—in North America, these models offer fast turnover when photos and battery stats are clear.
Pixel: Use Short Listing Periods and Dodge Promo Ripples
Best window: August to September ahead of fall events. In winter, keep listings tight and move fast around heavy promo weeks.
Good news: premium Pixels are stepping up. The Pixel 10’s $799 debut shows a stronger top end. That helps the resale floor for newer Pixels, especially in excellent condition.
Older Pixels can still do well when priced right. As of December 2025, even original Pixel models find buyers at ~$86 average—proof that demand exists across the price ladder when you match the right band.
Pro tip across brands:
“Sell before the surge.” Heavy promos depress used prices for a bit. Big launches do too. Holidays and early tax season do the opposite.
The Weekly Phone Depreciation Tracker: Your 8–12 Week Loop
You don’t need a PhD to track used phone price trends. You just need a simple loop you run every week. Here’s the framework we use.
Set up a tracker once. Then follow a weekly routine that logs average offers, checks your model’s 5-month trend, and flags promo-heavy weeks. Use a “test and lock” flow to time your sale with low risk. For a ready-to-use plan, see our 2025 Depreciation Tracker Playbook.
Your Weekly Routine
Weekly: Log the average offer for your exact model, storage, and condition. Note any new carrier promos or big device events. Watch if the 5-month slope is getting steeper.
Biweekly: If your model’s slope worsens or you hit your target net, lock a buyback quote. Otherwise, run a private-list test at a slightly higher price for 48–72 hours.
Condition control: Update photos in bright, even light. Verify battery health. List clear accessories. These small tweaks push you into higher price bands.
Why This Helps
A tracker guards your value. It turns “I think prices are falling” into “I know my curve is turning faster, so I’ll lock today.” It also helps you spot “dead weeks” right after big promos when buyers are waiting for the next deal.
Channel Strategy: Which Door Should You Pick?
Different channels fit different risk levels and price curves. Use these rules to pick your lane fast.
- If your model’s 5-month drop is above ~40% and speeding up, lock an online buyback quote now. This backstops your price and avoids bigger slips.
- If refurbished ASPs are rising and your device is in excellent condition, go where condition pays a premium. Certified pre-owned buyers price quality better than broad auction averages.
- If your curve is gentle and demand is strong (many iPhones), test a private-market price early in the peak window. Have a buyback quote ready as a backstop.
- Keep a calendar buffer. Aim to finalize 10–14 days before major launches, Unpacked events, or peak tax refund weeks. This avoids price cliffs when listings flood.
Phone Model Playbooks: iPhone, Galaxy, Pixel
iPhone: The “Sell-Sooner” Winter Play
The story: Apple still wins on resale, but early-cycle depreciation has accelerated. The iPhone 16’s ~35.4% five-month drop vs. the iPhone 13’s ~24.7% tells us to list earlier, not later.
Best band: $200–$500 iPhones move fast. Aim to land in this band by highlighting battery health and clean condition.
Peak timing: December–February. Try not to wait until mid-tax season when supply stacks up and buyers get picky.
Galaxy: Mind the Promo Tide
The story: With AI features and 7-year support, Galaxy is closing the gap. The S25’s modeled ~46.6% five-month drop is better than the S22’s ~51.9%.
Best band: $200–$500 includes S22/S23. These models turn fast in North America when listings are clean and well-lit.
Peak timing: December–January for last-gen S series. Sell foldables pre-cycle and away from BOGO waves.
Pixel: Short Bursts, Sharp Moves
The story: Pixels feel every promo. But the camera and clean Android keep fans coming back. Premium Pixels are rising—the Pixel 10 at $799 matches iPhone’s tiering and nudges floors up.
Real prices: Older Pixels still sell when priced right. December 2025 averages show ~$86 sales for original Pixels, with the 128 GB around $99.
Peak timing: August–September pre-fall is best. In winter, keep listing windows short and skip the week after heavy promos.
How to Read the $200–$500 Zone
This price band is the heartbeat of the U.S. used market. It’s where most phones sell. Why it matters:
Buyers in this range move quickly when condition is clear. Listing quality rules—bright photos, battery info, and honest notes about tiny scuffs build trust. In this band, small upgrades (a new cable, a clean case) can tilt a buyer to your listing.
“Golden Window” Calendar: Why Dec–Feb Works
Holiday shoppers chase value. January brings fresh goals and fresh phones. Early tax prep adds buying power. Together, these forces lift used prices. But as refunds hit, listings surge—and that compresses prices.
- Try to list or lock a quote in December or January.
- If you test a private sale, keep it to one weekend. If it doesn’t move, pivot to a buyback midweek.
- Aim to wrap up by February before the biggest refund waves and launch events roll in.
Your 60–90 Day Action Plan (Dec 2025–Feb 2026)
December: Set the Floor, Test Once
iPhone and last-gen Galaxy owners: List now or lock a buyback quote. If you want to test private pricing, do one weekend run. If no sale, swap to a locked offer midweek.
Pixels: If promos are active, keep the listing short. Be ready to pivot fast if you see price pressure.
January: Ride the Demand Wave
Re-run quotes weekly. If offers rise, lock. Refresh photos and polish your listing. Check battery health and note it up front. Watch for event rumors—if a new S series reveal is near, move quick before Unpacked pulls prices down.
February: Beat the Rush
Tax refunds boost buying, but they also boost supply. If your model’s curve steepens, convert to a buyback right away. Keep a 10–14 day buffer before any big event tied to your model family.
Simple Decision Tree: 4 Quick Steps to the Best Channel
1) Check your 5-month slope.
Is your model’s 5-month drop above ~40% and getting worse? If yes, lock a buyback now to cap your downside.
2) Check condition.
Excellent condition? Buyers pay more when they trust the listing. Certified refurb channels may deliver a higher net when ASPs are rising.
3) Check timing.
Are you inside the Dec–Feb golden window? If yes, test a private list for 48–72 hours if your model has strong demand (iPhones often do). Backstop with a locked quote so you don’t miss the tide.
4) Check events and promos.
Is a big promo or launch ahead? Sell before it. Are heavy promos just ending? Expect a short dip. Adjust your price or wait a week.
Condition Cues That Lift You a Full Price Band
- Photos: front, back, all corners, and ports. Bright, even light. No filters.
- Battery: if your phone shows battery health, add it. Buyers care.
- Accessories: include a clean cable or case if you can. Small add-ons can tip a buyer fast.
- Honesty: tiny scuffs? Say so. Clear notes build trust and speed up sales.
Price Bands: How to Position Your Model
Sub-$200: bundle early and keep your listing simple. Don’t overthink it—buyers in this tier want speed and honesty.
$200–$500: this is the hot zone. Emphasize condition and battery. Move early in Dec–Feb.
Over $500: spotlight warranty, support years left, and standout features (AI tools, camera sets). Pixels and Galaxies in this zone should time around promo cycles. iPhones can test private sales first.
What the Next 24 Months May Look Like
If current patterns continue, iPhones will still lead resale, but early-cycle drops may grow. A ~46% average five‑month loss by 2027 is in play based on today’s trend lines.
Samsung’s AI and long support could keep closing the gap, especially for buyers planning to hold phones 4–6 years. Pixels will likely swing with promos, but their move into premium pricing—Pixel 10 at $799—sets a stronger floor over time when matched feature-for-feature with iPhone and Galaxy.
Used Phone Price Trends: What Lifts All Boats
Refurb demand is growing. ASPs are rising for good-condition units, and even “as‑is” phones saw a notable YoY bump this year. That supports floors across brands, especially in the $200–$500 zone.
Premium price anchors work. When new phones launch higher (Pixel matching iPhone tiers), it holds the used ladder together. Buyers compare across lines and pick the best value, not just the cheapest sticker.
Quick Reminders Before You List
- Back up your data. Wipe your phone clean.
- Turn off Activation Lock / Find My / Google FRP. These are deal-breakers.
- Clean the phone. Dust the ports. Take clear, bright photos.
- Be honest about any scuffs or battery wear.
“Industry experts warn that activation lock is the number one deal-breaker for resale.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I sell my iPhone 16 now or wait?
If you’re inside the Dec–Feb window, list or lock a quote now. The iPhone 16’s early 5-month drop is steeper than past cycles, so waiting can cost you more this time.
I have a Galaxy S23. When’s best to sell?
December–January is the sweet spot for last-gen S phones. Try to beat the next Unpacked cycle and steer clear of heavy BOGO promo weeks.
My Pixel seems to drop right after promos. Is that normal?
Yes. Pixels are the most promo-sensitive of the big three. Use short listing periods and dodge post‑promo weeks. Premium Pixels in excellent condition can still do great.
Are refurbished phone price trends in my favor this winter?
Yes. Refurb ASPs rose this year, and demand is strong in the $200–$500 band. Good condition phones benefit the most.
What if I want a real time phone price tracker I can follow each week?
Use our tracker framework. It gives you a weekly loop with alerts, price tests, and clear lock rules.
A Short, Simple Checklist to Close Strong
- Pick your sell window: December–February is prime for iPhone and last-gen Galaxy. Pixel works best pre-fall, but you can still win in winter with quick tests and clean listings.
- Set up your weekly tracker: log offers, watch the 5-month slope, and flag promo weeks.
- Choose your channel: lock a buyback if your curve is steep; test private if demand is strong and your condition is excellent.
- Don’t wait too long: finish 10–14 days before major events and heavy refund waves.
- Control your condition: photos, battery info, and honest notes can lift you a full price band.
Why This Playbook Matters Now
This is the most consequential phone-selling window of the year in the U.S. Holiday buyers want deals. January buyers want upgrades. Early tax season brings cash to the table. By reading the model-by-model price trends and using a simple tracker, you can lock the right price at the right time.
GizmoGrind can help you move fast, lock a quote, and recycle right. We pay fast for used smartphones, tablets, MacBooks, Apple accessories, and smartwatches. Note: we do not accept iCloud-locked, blacklisted, lost/stolen, or water-damaged devices. If your device is good to go, we’ll help you get the most from it—and keep it in use, not in a drawer.
Model-by-model price trends shift every week. But your plan can stay simple: watch the curve, time the tide, and lock the win.
“`