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Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
- iPhone 16 is down ~35.4% in five months—faster than older iPhones due to slower AI rollout.
- Galaxy S25 is down ~46.6% at the same age, but improving year over year thanks to AI features.
- Pixel 9 sits at ~56.9% loss, yet better than Pixel 8 at a similar point.
- Samsung’s AI push may close the resale gap with iPhone by mid‑2026, reshaping when to sell.
- Timing beats guesswork—sell before launch events or wait for post‑launch stabilization to maximize payout.
Why January 2026 Matters
January sets the tone for the whole year. New AI features are rolling out fast. Big launches land in tight waves. Prices can swing hard right after a keynote. So a smart “when to sell” plan matters more than ever.
Here’s the quick frame for 2026. iPhone 16 dropped about 35.4% in five months, a faster slide than some older iPhones. Galaxy S25 sits near a 46.6% drop at five months, better than older S‑series baselines and moving the right way. Pixel 9 is down about 56.9% at five months, but still a bit better than Pixel 8’s 10‑month snapshot, thanks to AI.
The market story? Samsung’s AI phones are closing in on iPhone’s resale value edge in 2026, so the best time to trade in Galaxy S25 or hold for S26 depends on mid‑year AI traction and cross‑brand launch shockwaves.
2026 Snapshot: AI, Launch Timing, and Depreciation Trajectories
Three things will guide your payout this year: AI features, launch dates, and device condition/storage.
AI lifts value. Samsung and Google’s AI tools are boosting buyer confidence and slowing loss. Apple’s slower AI rollout is speeding iPhone losses compared to earlier years, according to this trend view.
Launches move prices. Expect a 20–40% drop in the first year for most flagships, and bigger dips right after big unveil events. The Galaxy S26 window in Jan–Feb 2026 will press older S phones. Apple’s fall iPhone cycle will reset prices across brands again (sources: GizmoPros depreciation calculator and GizmoGrind launch impact guide).
Condition and storage matter a lot. Cracked screens can cut value by 30–50%. Higher storage and Pro/Ultra variants hold best across brands. iPhones often retain 40–50% after two years vs. 20–30% Android averages, but the gap is shrinking.
Projections: Galaxy Closes the Gap in 2026
Let’s zoom into the trend lines that shape this year’s “sell vs. hold” calls.
At 5 months after launch, iPhone’s loss rate has been rising about +3.57 percentage points per year. That points to roughly a 46.1% loss by 2027 if the run rate holds. Galaxy S is improving by about −1.77 points per year at the 5‑month mark, tracking toward roughly a 43.1% loss by 2027 at the same mark.
At 9 months, iPhone is trending up +2.38 points per year (from ~25.2% loss in 2020 to ~34.7% now), while Galaxy is improving about −0.83 points per year. That hints at parity by around 2028 at the 9‑month snapshot if paths hold.
SellCell’s graphs show the iPhone and Samsung lines actually crossing in mid‑2026, thanks to Samsung’s AI gains and a broader lift in the S series (foldables are improving too), while Apple’s slower AI story chips away at its old resale lead.
Model‑by‑Model Trajectories with Built‑In Sell Windows
Think of this as your compact 2026 phone depreciation tracker. We give you the current trend, the phase to watch, and the best quarters to act.
iPhone 16: The Q1 2026 Window
The snapshot: iPhone 16 has dropped about 35.4% five months post‑launch. That’s a touch worse than iPhone 15 at nine months and much softer than older iPhones like iPhone 12 at the same age. Analysts point to lagging AI features as a key driver.
2026 phase to watch: Post‑holiday to spring. Apple’s next AI story could land later in the year, but Galaxy launches in Jan–Feb will shake the market sooner.
Ideal sell window: Q1 2026. If your iPhone 16 is in great shape, you’re in the best window before mid‑year pressure. Higher storage and the Pro/Max models hold best.
Channel guidance: If you want speed and low hassle, get a quote from a buyback like GizmoGrind and compare to any carrier offer. Private sale may squeeze out a bit more, but only if your photos and listing are strong and you’re okay with more steps.
iPhone 17: Watch Mid‑Year Softness
The snapshot: Forecasts say iPhone 17 could lose value faster than Galaxy S26 at similar ages if Apple’s AI rollout trails. Expect a shakier first half compared to past iPhone cycles.
2026 phase to watch: Q2–Q3. If AI features ramp at WWDC or later, that could slow depreciation. If they lag, watch for faster slides.
Ideal sell window: If you upgraded early, test the market in Q2 2026 when post‑launch hype is still warm. Recheck in early Q3 before Apple’s fall cycle resets the board again.
Channel guidance: Use a phone trade‑in value tracker and our smartphone depreciation calculator 2026 to model outcomes by storage and condition.
Galaxy S25: Improvement Trend, but Mind the S26 Shock
The snapshot: Galaxy S25 sits near a 46.6% loss five months in, an improvement over the S22 at ~51.9%, and slightly better than S24’s ~47.3% snapshot. AI features are helping, even with early‑year dips.
2026 phase to watch: S26 launches press older S‑series phones. Expect a drag right around Jan–Feb reveal time.
Ideal sell window: Late November through early January is hot if you can pre‑empt big S26 news. For early 2026 sellers, aim to list or lock quotes before the S26 keynote week. Post‑launch, consider waiting into Q2 for a price stabilization bounce.
Channel guidance: Compare carrier credits vs. cash carefully. Credits can be high but often lock you in for years. Cash gives you freedom.
Galaxy S26: Watch AI Rollouts, Play the Mid‑Year Lane
The snapshot: With Samsung’s AI story getting stronger, the S26 is poised to hold better than past models at the same age. The broader trend shows Samsung’s line moving up toward iPhone’s retention and possibly crossing in mid‑2026 depending on features and demand.
2026 phase to watch: Q2 is key. Early buyers may see the usual post‑launch dip, then a steadier mid‑year phase if AI features land well.
Ideal sell window: For early adopters, the best time to trade might be late Q2 to early Q3, before Apple’s fall cycle can drag all boats down a bit.
Channel guidance: Ultra models and higher storage will do best. If your battery health is solid and your screen is pristine, you’re set to beat averages.
Pixel 9: Improving, but Plan for Pre‑Fall Exits
The snapshot: Pixel 9 is down ~56.9% at five months, but that’s still about 2.6 points better than the Pixel 8’s 10‑month check‑in. AI perks seem to be helping retention, even if Pixels still trail iPhone and Galaxy.
2026 phase to watch: Mid‑year stabilization, then a late‑year dip as new cycles hit.
Ideal sell window: Mid‑year (Q2) is your friend. If a fall Pixel event is on deck, selling before it can save you from a sharp reset.
Channel guidance: Private sale can work for clean Pixel phones with top photos and honest condition notes. But if you value time, a buyback’s instant quote is easy and safe.
What’s Driving These Model Differences?
AI impact: Samsung and Google’s rapid AI rollouts make buyers feel future‑proof. Apple’s slower pace has nudged iPhone losses higher than past years and opened a 2026 window where Galaxy resale could match or beat iPhone in some age snapshots.
Launch cadence: New phone announcements often trigger sharp dips in older models for 30–60 days. If you can sell before or wait until after the dust settles, you gain ground.
Storage and condition: Higher storage is a quiet hero. And small fixes can unlock big value lifts—repairing a cracked screen can recover 30–50%, which is often more than the repair bill.
2026 Quarterly Sell‑Window Calendar
Q1 (Jan–Mar)
The move: Lock early quotes on iPhone 16 and Galaxy S25 if your device is clean. Aim to beat or avoid the S26 launch dip.
Why now: New Galaxy announcements often trigger steeper drops for prior S‑series models. iPhone 16 owners can still catch solid offers before cross‑brand resets echo through spring.
Pixel play: Watch for January promo refresh. Opportunistic sells often pop in this window.
Q2 (Apr–Jun)
The move: Post‑launch stabilization for Galaxy S26. This is a good window to test quotes for S26, iPhone 17, and Pixel 9 while spreads are steady.
Why now: After the early dip, new models often level off. Higher storage tiers and Pro/Ultra variants will stand out, so check your exact trim with our smartphone depreciation calculator 2026.
Bonus: If Apple hints at a strong mid‑year AI turn, you may see iPhone 17 offers hold better—so test the market before July.
Q3 (Jul–Sep)
The move: Sell ahead of Apple’s fall cycle. This is the classic “beat the keynote” play.
Why now: Apple fall events tend to nudge prices down across the board—yes, even for Samsung and Google—thanks to cross‑brand resets and buyer FOMO on new models.
Focus: Ship pristine devices with full accessories for top‑tier grading. Small flaws create bigger gaps in Q3.
Q4 (Oct–Dec)
The move: Use holiday buyback promotions and compare cash vs. carrier credit. Bundle multiple devices for bonus value.
Why now: Demand rises for gifts and backup phones. Lock quotes 30–60 days ahead of your target sale date and avoid late‑December shipping crunches.
Tip: Carrier credits may look high but come with strings. Cash gives you flexibility going into 2027.
The 2026 Sell‑Window Checklist, Model by Model
iPhone 16/17
When to sell iPhone 2026: For iPhone 16, Q1 is your best shot before mid‑year pressure. For iPhone 17, try Q2 and early Q3 before the fall reset.
What to watch: Any Apple AI news. Strong features could slow the slide; delays can speed it.
How to prep: Higher storage, Pro/Max trims, and clean screens are your edge.
Galaxy S25/S26
Best time to trade in Galaxy S25: Late November to early January before the S26 splash, or wait until late Q2 once S26 prices stabilize.
Galaxy S26 trade‑in timing: For early adopters, late Q2 into early Q3 is often best, ahead of Apple’s fall wave. AI features can lift mid‑year demand.
Pixel 9
Pixel 9 value retention 2026: The line is improving, but Pixels still trail. Use mid‑year windows to sell before fall events reset interest.
Practical Value‑Max Tactics (Beyond Timing)
Strong timing is half the battle. The other half is how you prep and where you sell.
Condition is king. A cracked screen can cost you 30–50% of your value. Run the numbers: if the repair is cheap and your model is high‑end, the fix often pays for itself and more.
Storage matters. 256 GB and up usually holds better. Pro/Max/Ultra trims keep value longer across brands.
Battery health: 80%+ looks much better to buyers and graders. If your battery is weak and the model is valuable, a change can help.
Pre‑Sell Prep Checklist
- Back up your data and factory reset.
- Turn off Find My iPhone and remove iCloud or Google account locks.
- Confirm the device is unlocked and not blacklisted.
- Gather the box and cables if you have them.
- Clean the phone so graders can see its true condition.
“Industry experts warn that activation lock is the number one deal‑breaker for resale.”
Important: GizmoGrind cannot accept iCloud‑locked, blacklisted, lost/stolen, or water‑damaged devices. Make sure your device is clean and ready before you ship.
Channel Strategy: Cash, Credits, or Private Sale?
Buyback services: Fast, safe, and clear. Get instant quotes and free shipping. Great if you value time and predictability.
Carrier trade‑in credits: Can be high, but often lock you into long plans. Run the net math before you commit.
Private sale: Best only when the extra effort is worth it. Use strong photos (10–12 is plenty), a clear condition statement, and local meet‑up safety tips. For help, check our private sale playbook and platform comparison guide.
Your 2026 Phone Depreciation Tracker, Powered by Data
Here’s how we built this year’s view:
Current benchmarks: iPhone 16 around −35.4% at five months; Galaxy S25 around −46.6%; Pixel 9 around −56.9% at the same point, with Pixel slightly better than Pixel 8’s 10‑month pace. Higher storage and Pro/Ultra trims do better.
Use our smartphone depreciation calculator 2026 to plug in your model, storage, age, and condition to see expected ranges.
The 2026 Sell‑Window Playbook in Action
Let’s make this real with a few fast scenarios.
iPhone 16 Pro Max, 256 GB, excellent: You list in February. You beat the late‑winter dip and catch buyers who want near‑new iPhones at a deal. Your storage and trim give you an edge. If a scratch is holding you back, a cheap polish or case bundle may help you land a higher bracket.
Galaxy S25 Ultra, 512 GB, light wear: You get quotes in late April. S26 prices have cooled from launch, your trim is strong, and competition is lower than in January. You compare a cash offer to a carrier promo. The cash looks better after you factor lock‑in risk, so you ship.
Pixel 9, 128 GB, good: You plan for June. You skip fall pricing pressure and use clean photos in a private listing. If the listing drags, you fall back to a buyback quote you saved earlier.
Quarterly Reminders You’ll Actually Use
60‑day alerts: Set two reminders before each known launch season—one to clean and prep, one to lock quotes.
Photo day: Shoot 10–12 angles in daylight on a light, flat surface. Turn the screen on to show brightness and no dead pixels.
Paper trail: Keep your quote emails and shipping proof handy. It speeds up everything.
How GizmoGrind Helps
We built this 2026 phone depreciation tracker to help you sell at the right time, at the right price. Here’s how to put it to work:
- Check your model’s trend and quarter. Use the guidance above to target your window.
- Run the numbers with our smartphone depreciation calculator 2026 to see how storage, age, and condition affect your payout.
- Lock your quote when your target price hits. We send you a free kit. You ship fast and get paid quick.
We’re online, nationwide, and simple. And we keep e‑waste out of landfills by reusing and recycling old tech.
Risks and Caveats
Forecasts are not promises. Surprise AI leaps, unexpected price cuts, or supply swings can bend these lines. Our tracker uses current snapshots (like PhoneArena’s five‑month figures for iPhone 16, Galaxy S25, and Pixel 9) and broader AI trend views (like SellCell’s parity projections). If the AI race heats up, curves can change fast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What if my screen is cracked?
A repair can lift your price 30–50% in many cases. Check your quote with and without the fix to see if it pays off.
Do Pro/Max/Ultra models always hold better?
Most of the time, yes. Higher storage helps too. That’s true across iPhone, Galaxy, and Pixel lines.
Is January 2026 too late to sell my Galaxy S25?
Not if you move before or right as S26 lands. If you miss it, consider waiting for Q2 when prices stabilize again.
Will Galaxy resale really match iPhone this year?
Some projections show a mid‑2026 crossover at certain age marks if Samsung’s AI story stays strong and Apple’s stays slower.
Is now a bad time to sell a Pixel 9?
Not at all. But mid‑year is often best, before the fall cycle pulls prices down.
The Bottom Line for 2026
- If you own an iPhone 16: Q1 is your best sell window. Test quotes now, especially for Pro/Max.
- If you own an iPhone 17: Re‑check in Q2 and early Q3 to beat the fall reset.
- If you own a Galaxy S25: Sell before S26 hype, or wait for Q2 stabilization.
- If you own a Galaxy S26: Late Q2 to early Q3 can be prime before Apple’s fall cycle.
- If you own a Pixel 9: Aim for mid‑year to avoid late‑year dips.
This year, the iPhone vs. Galaxy depreciation 2026 race is closer than ever. Use this 2026 phone depreciation tracker, keep an eye on AI news, and lock your quote in your best quarter. When you’re ready, GizmoGrind makes the sell simple—no stress, fast pay, and better use for old tech.
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